The Lagos State Government has announced that the state is expected to experience above-normal rainfall during the 2026 rainy season.
The disclosure was made on Friday by the Commissioner for the Environment and Water Resources, Tokunbo Wahab, during a media briefing on the 2026 Seasonal Climate Predictions (SCP) and its socio-economic implications held at the ministry’s conference room in Alausa.
According to Wahab, the state is projected to receive an average annual rainfall ranging between 1,650mm and 3,030mm in 2026.He explained that the rainy season is expected to commence as early as the last week of March and end in the first week of December.
Providing location-specific forecasts, the commissioner said Ikeja is expected to record rainfall onset on March 31 and cessation on December 2, with an estimated annual rainfall of 1,932mm.
He added that Badagry is projected to experience rainfall from March 28 to December 3, with an estimated 2,010mm rainfall.
Similarly, Ikorodu is expected to have rainfall between March 31 and December 2, with about 1,935mm, while Lagos Island is projected to record rainfall from March 30 to December 2, with an estimated 1,968mm.
For Epe, Wahab said rainfall is expected to begin on March 29 and end on December 3, with an annual total of about 1,984mm.
He noted that across the state’s 20 Local Government Areas, an average rainfall amount of about 1,965mm is expected.
The commissioner attributed the 2026 projection to a weak La Niña condition and a neutral phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). He explained that ENSO represents the interaction between the ocean and atmosphere in the tropical Pacific Ocean and significantly influences global climate patterns.
According to him, the weak La Niña and neutral ENSO phases are expected to bring lower temperatures, earlier rainfall onset, increased rainfall amounts, and delayed rainfall cessation, compared to the El Niño phase, which usually produces higher temperatures and reduced rainfall.
Wahab further noted that the year began with a weak La Niña in January, while the neutral ENSO phase is expected to persist for the first six to eight months of the year. This situation, he said, suggests an early start to the rainy season, longer duration, and delayed end.
“As a result, above-normal rainfall amounts are anticipated during the first peak of the rainy season, while normal rainfall amounts are expected during the second peak,” he said.
He recalled that the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) released its 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction on February 10, providing nationwide forecasts of rainfall, temperature and other weather parameters.
Wahab said the collaboration between the ministry and NiMet has continued to serve as an important early warning tool for farmers, planners, businesses and decision-makers.
He, however, warned residents that heavy rainfall could trigger flash flooding in some parts of the state, particularly during periods of strong winds at the beginning and end of the rainy season.
The commissioner also identified rising lagoon water levels as another factor that could contribute to flooding. According to him, high tidal movements can block drainage discharge points, leading to temporary backflows until the lagoon level recedes.
To mitigate potential impacts, Wahab said the state government has strengthened its Flood Early Warning Systems (FEWS) and established a network of weather and river gauge stations to monitor weather patterns and water levels.
He added that the government is intensifying drainage maintenance programmes, flood control measures and solid waste management to ensure a cleaner and flood-resilient environment.
The commissioner said agencies such as the Lagos State Signage and Advertisement Agency (LASAA) have been placed on high alert to ensure strict compliance with safety regulations for billboards and telecommunication masts, particularly due to expected high wind speeds during the rainy season.
Wahab also noted that emergency response agencies and traffic management authorities have been placed on standby to respond swiftly to thunderstorms and other weather-related incidents.
The state government, he said, will continue its collaboration with the Ogun-Oshun River Basin Development Authority (OORBDA) to monitor the controlled release of water from Oyan Dam to prevent flooding along the downstream sections of the Ogun River.
As part of precautionary measures, communities in low-lying areas such as Agiliti, Agboyi, Itowolo and Ajegunle will be closely monitored due to the potential risk of river flooding.
Residents living along flood plains and drainage channels in areas including Owode, Iwaya, Makoko, Badia, Ijora, Isaalu, Pota and Shibiri were also advised to remain alert and relocate to higher ground if necessary.
Wahab urged residents to avoid actions that could worsen flooding, particularly the indiscriminate dumping of refuse in drains, building on drainage setbacks and blocking waterways with construction materials.
He encouraged residents to report drainage blockages or illegal waste disposal to the ministry’s resident engineers and Zero Tolerance offices across the state.
According to him, drainage engineers are stationed across the 57 Local Government Areas and Local Council Development Areas to respond to drainage-related issues throughout the rainy season.
The commissioner also called on residents to support government efforts by regularly clearing drains around their homes to allow the free flow of stormwater.
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