Global crude oil prices surged dangerously close to the $80 per barrel mark over the weekend, following a joint military strike by the United States and Israel on Iranian nuclear facilities.

The attack, described by the former U.S. President Donald Trump as a “preemptive defensive action,” has raised fears of a broader conflict in the Middle East, unsettling global energy markets.

In the aftermath of the airstrike, Iran hinted at the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a key maritime route responsible for transporting nearly 20% of the world’s crude oil. Although the decision is yet to be confirmed, the geopolitical tension has already driven up oil prices. Brent crude rose significantly, while Nigerian crude blends such as Bonny Light and Qua Iboe climbed to nearly $79 per barrel.

In Nigeria, where the economy is highly dependent on imported petroleum products, the price surge is already hitting consumers hard. Fuel marketers have warned that petrol prices could rise to as high as N1,000 per litre in the coming weeks, citing both the international crude price spike and the volatility of the naira on the foreign exchange market.

Speaking to Journalist, Olatide Jeremiah, CEO of PetroleumPrice.ng, confirmed that private depots have started raising loading costs in anticipation of further hikes. He attributed the situation to the dual impact of a depreciating naira and escalating global crude prices, which have placed increasing financial strain on fuel importers and local refiners.

Clement Ukadike, a senior official of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), said key suppliers — including the Dangote Refinery and major importers — have raised their prices, forcing marketers to adjust retail pump prices in order to stay in business. The cost of lifting a 50,000-litre petrol consignment has increased sharply, squeezing the margins of independent dealers.

“The worst-hit areas are the remote regions,” Ukadike said. “In the northern part of the country, petrol now sells for between N975 and N1,000 per litre due to increased transportation and logistics costs. Even in the South-South, prices have surged to around N950 per litre.”

He added that despite hopes pinned on the Dangote Refinery for cheaper locally refined fuel, relief remains elusive as the refinery purchases crude at global rates. This has dashed expectations of price reductions from domestic refining operations.

According to data from Oilprice.com as of Sunday, Bonny Light was trading at $78.62 per barrel, while Brent crude stood at $77.01 — both surpassing Nigeria’s 2025 budget benchmark of $75 per barrel. While this price uptick may boost government revenues, it poses a fresh economic burden for consumers already grappling with high inflation and stagnant incomes.

Energy analysts warn that crude oil prices could rise by another $3 to $5 per barrel if tensions in the Middle East escalate. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo, however, noted that further gains might be limited unless there is a significant disruption to global oil supply. The final decision on closing the Strait of Hormuz lies with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, whose actions could have profound implications for the global energy landscape.

In response to the crude oil price surge, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has increased the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) to N945 per litre from N895, representing a N50 hike. This new pricing was observed at NNPCL filling stations across key Abuja locations, including Kubwa Expressway, Wuse Zone 6 (Berger), Zone 4, Airport Road, and Lugbe.

Motorists have begun to feel the strain. One driver, Benjamin Chukwu, said the new price has already begun affecting transportation fares. “I noticed the pump price was adjusted to N945 per litre on Sunday evening. Even MRS also adjusted their prices over the weekend. This will definitely increase the cost of transport,” he told DAILY POST.

MRS filling stations, a retail partner of Dangote Refinery, had earlier announced new price templates ranging between N925 and N945 per litre in Lagos and Abuja.

The adjustment followed an upward revision of Dangote Refinery’s ex-depot price from N825 to N880 per litre last Friday.

As global tension simmers and domestic supply challenges persist, Nigerians are bracing for a new round of petrol price shocks, with wider implications for inflation, transportation, and household spending.