When President Bola Ahmed Tinubu announced the sudden dismissal of all service chiefs on Friday, October 24, 2025, Nigeria’s political and security circles went into overdrive. The move swift, decisive, and unexpected came amid swirling rumours of an attempted coup within the military.
For many, the question now is not just why Tinubu acted, but what exactly he knows. Is this a patriotic effort to safeguard democracy or a calculated political maneuver to tighten control ahead of 2027?

The saying goes, “there is no smoke without fire.” For weeks, social media and political grapevines have been abuzz with claims of a plot by certain elements within the armed forces allegedly backed by disgruntled politicians to destabilize the nation during this year’s Independence Day celebrations.

The Defence Headquarters (DHQ) quickly moved to quash the speculation. In a statement dated October 19, Brigadier-General Tukur Gusau, Director of Defence Information, dismissed the coup rumours as “false, malicious, and intended to cause unnecessary tension.” He clarified that the 16 officers arrested earlier in the month were being investigated for “indiscipline and breach of service regulations,” not for plotting against the government.

“The Armed Forces of Nigeria remain firmly loyal to the Constitution and the Federal Government under the leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu,” Gusau emphasized, urging the public to ignore “misinformation from enemies of the nation.”
Yet, denials have not silenced public suspicion. Barely a week later, the President’s sweeping dismissal of the service chiefs reignited speculation that perhaps there was indeed more to the story than officials were letting on.

Reshuffle or Recalibration?

The Presidency described the shake-up as part of an effort to “reinvigorate Nigeria’s security structure” to better tackle terrorism, banditry, and separatist threats.
Sunday Dare, Special Adviser to the President on Media and Public Communication, announced the new appointments: General Olufemi Oluyede as Chief of Defence Staff, Major-General W. Shaibu as Chief of Army Staff, Air Vice Marshal S.K. Aneke as Chief of Air Staff, Rear Admiral I. Abbas as Chief of Naval Staff, Major-General E.A.P. Undiendeye retained his position as Chief of Defence Intelligence.

President Tinubu charged the new service chiefs to “uphold professionalism and loyalty to the Constitution,” declaring that “the defence of Nigeria’s democracy and unity remains non-negotiable.”

Still, many see the move as part of a broader political realignment. With early endorsements already trickling in from Lagos, Kogi, Plateau, and Imo States, some analysts argue the President is subtly positioning himself for a 2027 re-election bid. For critics, the timing feels less about security and more about strategy a preemptive move to neutralize internal dissent.

Public analysts and citizens have been vocal and divided in their assessments.

Prince Adesoji Fagbemi, in his opinion piece “No Room for Coup in Nigeria — Let the Ballot, Not the Bullet, Decide,” urged the government to address the root causes of public discontent rather than chase political shadows.
“There is hunger in the land, rising insecurity, crumbling infrastructure, and widespread darkness literally and figuratively,” Fagbemi wrote.
“Governance must replace grandstanding. President Tinubu should focus on delivering his current mandate, not political permutations for 2027. Only God knows who will live to see it. May the ballot, not the bullet, determine Nigeria’s future.”

Stephen Akuma took a different angle, warning against citizens romanticizing military rule. “It seems there is a silent consensus among some Igbos and Fulanis on social media supporting a coup against PBAT. You may not like the President, but calling for a coup is unfortunate,” Akuma said.
“The National Assembly is already working on electoral reforms. Let us pressure them for a fair election, not welcome the military back into power. The mess we face today is partly the legacy of past dictators.”

Civil society has also sounded the alarm. Human rights lawyer Inibehe Effiong, speaking on Channels TV’s Morning Show, accused the Tinubu administration of “waging war on democracy.” “You say you don’t want a coup, yet you suppress citizens’ right to protest,” he said. “If Nigerians can’t protest at Aso Rock or the National Assembly, where should they go — Sambisa Forest?”

Similarly, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) cautioned against weaponizing coup rumours to silence opposition voices. In a statement by its national publicity secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, the party warned: “We strongly oppose any action that threatens Nigeria’s constitutional order, but we’re equally concerned about using such allegations to justify political witch-hunts.”

The Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre (CISLAC) echoed that sentiment. Its Executive Director, Auwal Musa Rafsanjani, stated: “A coup in a complex nation like Nigeria would not just be unconstitutional it would be catastrophic. The military must stay out of politics, and politicians must avoid actions that provoke instability.”

Echoes of History

Nigeria’s long, painful history with military takeovers from 1966 to 1999 remains an unhealed wound. Those dark years left behind a legacy of repression, economic decay, and broken institutions. For a nation of over 250 million people, another disruption to democratic rule would not only be disastrous but regionally destabilizing.

Online, opinions remain split. Some Nigerians praise Tinubu’s decisiveness.

“This is a stroke in the right direction,” wrote one user, Sumenenua Kumule. “New blood will bring new energy to the military.” Others remain skeptical.
“Changing service chiefs won’t fix the economy,” argued Onifade Zacheus. “Nigerians need food and jobs, not reshuffles.”
Another user, Pius Oyiza, offered a more spiritual take: “We thank God it was human beings that planned it and not God.”

Safeguarding Democracy — The Real Task Ahead

Whether the coup rumours were real, exaggerated, or politically weaponized, one truth remains undeniable: Nigeria’s democracy must not be left in the hands of political bandwagons. At this critical moment, the President must balance firmness with fairness, protecting the state without undermining the very freedoms that define it.

As one security expert aptly observed, “Democracy is not just about preventing coups; it’s about preventing the conditions that make people welcome them.”

For Nigeria, the message is clear: transparency, justice, and inclusion not fear or force, remain the surest safeguards of stability.

– Debo Omilani writes from Alausa, Ikeja, Lagos