The Osun Central Elite Caucus has advised Governor Ademola Adeleke to consider a voluntary withdrawal from the forthcoming governorship election, saying such a decision would help him save face rather than face what it described as an inevitable defeat by the All Progressives Congress (APC) and its candidate, Hon. Bola Oyebamiji (AMBO).

In a press release signed by Professor Hussein Ajirotutu, the group said the political strength that once propelled Governor Adeleke to victory has significantly waned across the state’s three senatorial districts, leaving him vulnerable in the coming contest.

According to the caucus, the governor has lost Osun East Senatorial District, particularly the Ife and Ijesha axis, where it claimed that political heavyweights, grassroots mobilisers and party structures that once worked for Adeleke have defected en masse to the APC.

The group further noted that Osun West Senatorial District, the governor’s home base, is no longer united behind him. It explained that with almost all major governorship candidates in the race coming from Osun West, the bloc support Adeleke enjoyed in the 2022 election will now be split among several contenders, thereby weakening his electoral advantage.

In Ejigbo, the caucus said votes will be divided, with the African Democratic Congress (ADC) candidate, Najeem Salam, expected to attract sympathy votes, while Bola Oyebamiji is projected to secure the bulk of the support due to the strength of the APC’s party structure and brand. The group described the APC’s organisation and name recognition as decisive factors in the area.

Addressing the political situation in Iwo, the caucus dismissed expectations that Governor Adeleke’s alliance with Moshood Adeoti would significantly alter the outcome, insisting that Oyebamiji would still forge ahead. It also cited what it termed Adeleke’s “party factor” as a limitation that could further affect his chances in the town.

While acknowledging that Governor Adeleke is likely to perform strongly in Edeland with a landslide victory, the group said a similar landslide is expected for Bola Oyebamiji in his local government area, Irewole, thereby balancing the outcome.

Turning to Osun Central Senatorial District, the caucus claimed that several of Adeleke’s key allies, including top government officials, would fail to make any significant electoral impact. It alleged that even the governor’s political adviser, Muniru Raji, would be “politically diminished” in Osogbo, stressing that no single individual can dictate the political direction of Osogboland. The group further accused him of overrating his influence by leveraging his relationship with the Ataoja, despite, according to the caucus, not being a core stakeholder in Osogboland.

The statement predicted that the APC would once again triumph in Osun Central, winning Osogbo Federal Constituency and other local government areas in the district.

The caucus concluded that Governor Adeleke has effectively lost the election, claiming that the support he once enjoyed has shifted away from him and that many of his appointees have failed to adequately engage their constituents. It also accused the Adeleke administration of concentrating development and empowerment largely in Edeland, a move it said has alienated other parts of the state and reshaped public perception against the governor.

Based on these developments, the Osun Central Elite Caucus said it would be in the governor’s best interest to voluntarily withdraw from the race and avoid an “avoidable and humiliating defeat.”